Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 4.138989 4.915829 5.778247 6.803804 7.987102 9.306440 10.885606
2025-05-18 2.746097 3.716019 4.917613 6.502526 8.523256 10.997323 14.237391
2025-05-25 1.897141 2.881273 4.222647 6.154720 8.830536 12.364428 17.334586
2025-06-01 1.428289 2.400679 3.840316 6.074572 9.388912 14.044650 20.977623
2025-06-08 1.105903 2.039182 3.527867 5.995949 9.882438 15.637797 24.631587
2025-06-15 0.949711 1.896930 3.507060 6.328623 10.996592 18.213333 29.937922
2025-06-22 0.781445 1.689006 3.330527 6.364671 11.625162 20.093161 34.356569
2025-06-29 0.645654 1.505642 3.155809 6.362546 12.169134 21.868874 38.752109
2025-07-06 0.535527 1.344463 2.987372 6.335287 12.649456 23.565840 43.149282
2025-07-13 0.502554 1.338664 3.115165 6.872984 14.188294 27.175130 51.017830
2025-07-20 0.445477 1.264140 3.088726 7.102208 15.176457 29.907431 57.600261
2025-07-27 0.398390 1.201490 3.074827 7.350476 16.220791 32.819491 64.712561
2025-08-03 0.337310 1.090377 2.939691 7.338110 16.778970 34.943797 70.688099
2025-08-10 0.271871 0.948796 2.707106 7.079270 16.811173 36.096240 75.009228
2025-08-17 0.214248 0.810466 2.452222 6.725390 16.594951 36.742650 78.430444
2025-08-24 0.179214 0.729077 2.324055 6.646007 16.955265 38.548811 84.204138
2025-08-31 0.150055 0.656552 2.203386 6.563394 17.293830 40.333245 90.064134
2025-09-07 0.139670 0.646166 2.254617 6.924588 18.688998 44.416303 100.802856
2025-09-14 0.121074 0.598779 2.187633 6.963944 19.327716 46.946955 108.555177
2025-09-21 0.104155 0.551405 2.110127 6.961756 19.863911 49.297031 116.096287
2025-09-28 0.089153 0.505825 2.027840 6.932278 20.327317 51.521339 123.524152
2025-10-05 0.088098 0.521633 2.151350 7.514330 22.398934 57.492923 139.320045
2025-10-12 0.080625 0.504998 2.161258 7.762336 23.633701 61.654013 151.460099